人心难测–市场调查中的心理游戏

跟上篇博文写的是同一个演讲,把题目改了。

市场调查中很重要的一步就是研究消费者对所试产品的喜欢程度。Malcolm Gladwell这个演讲里主要讨论了对消费者喜好揣测所遇到的问题。

Malcolm的演讲是由Areon Chairs的故事展开。

Areon Chairs是一种办公椅。就是下面那样的家伙。

Areon Chair

Via SketchUpModels

著名设计师 Bill Stumpf 绞尽脑汁,挖空心思设计出这张革命性的办公椅。Bill 觉得很满意了,就把样品去给人试坐,去做市场调查。调查得到的回复是,椅子的舒适度得分很高,但外观得分却很低。

设计组拿回去做了一点外观的改进,再去做调查。结果还是很多人认为它很丑。

这样的结果意味着Areon Chairs很难卖得出去。

设计组还是把这个产品推出市场–Areon Chairs在4年内成为历史上销售最好的办公椅,并且获奖无数。

这时候,设计组再把这张椅子拿去给以前同一组试用者打分,那些试用者这次对Areon Chairs都打了很高分。

这下麻烦大了。那么多公司屡试不爽的看家本领怎么在这一次就失效了呢?

Continue reading 人心难测–市场调查中的心理游戏

绿色是什么意思?

托马斯·弗里德曼(Thomas Friedman)在这个演讲里讲述了他对当前能源危机的看法,并且给出了他心目中“绿色”的定义。

他认为,当前的能源危机和以往的不同,原因主要是,

1. 地缘政治发展跟以前不同了。

2. 世界是平的。当中国,俄罗斯等发展中国家起飞的同时,世界正以前所未有的速度消耗能源。

3. 中国将要变绿。能源的限制将迫使中国大规模地采用节能技术,因此,中国将变绿,中国将不得不变绿。中国一旦掌握了绿色技术就会对美国的领导地位发起更直接的挑战。

绿色中国比红色中国对美国更有威胁!

4. 根据石油政治学的第一定律(First law of petrolpolitic),石油政治会腐蚀正常的地缘政治。老弗认为,中国阻止联合国出兵处理苏丹的种族清洗就是一个典型的正常政治受到石油政治腐蚀的例子。

顺便提一下,石油政治学的第一定律是老弗首创的一个观点。

这个定律的基本观点是:自由的发展速度与石油价格成反比。

比如,伊朗发生宗教革命了,中东变得漆黑一片了,自由无望了,石油价格最高;当柏林墙倒了,苏联解体了,大家伙满街自由跳舞了,嘿,原油价格16美刀一桶。(便宜得可以买几桶回家用来洗澡,还不用担心有蓝藻。)

这个定律应该是老弗在这个演讲里的一个重点了。

5. 环球经济的网络化。

最后,老弗把“绿色”定义为,Geo-political, geo-strategic, and capitalistic。注意,都是褒义词。

Green is the new red, white and blue.

绿色是新的红色,白色和蓝色。

张亮听了老弗的演讲后觉得他比较象骗子。也许那是商业演讲的一个通病吧。

从老弗的专栏,演讲来看,他的观点很独到,而且,他还能经常创造出各种简单,时髦而又容易理解的词句来。

至少是一个极有创意的人。

, , , ,

Salaries of China’s Top Executives

A Shanghai-based consulting firm recently published a report on the annual salary of top executives in China’s listed companies. 

According to the report, in 2006, the average annual salary of those top executives increased 18% compared with that of year 2005.

The happy man below is the top earner.

He is the chairman of Shenzhen Development Bank.  He got US$ 1.3 million for his salary last year. 

The second person in the list is the General Manager of CIMC, a container manufacturer.  He earned US$ 760,000 salary last year.  The top executive from Bank of China follows with a salary of US$ 730,000. 

These figures do not include the share value they have.

The annual salary of the least-earners maybe more interesting.  If we make a list with the least-earner of the China’s listed companies, we can have these three on top.

1. ST. TongCheng (Retailing), US$ 2,500

2. XianChengShiYe(Textile), US$2,600

3. JinHuaLuJian (Chemicals), US$ 2,610

They earn less than manager’s monthly income in Singapore. 

The consultant makes a special statement in the report, “Retain a suspicion of the integrity of these companies and the authenticity and integrity of the information disclosed.”

Maybe these executives are China’s Lee Iacocca. 

Who knows.

An Angola’s contract leads to investigations in China

The awareness of stock markets has grown  in last couple of years and amount of people participating in stock trading has grown. Chinese companies are also using the stock market to raise money to fund projects outside China. Chinese construction companies are very active in Africa. So when Hangxiao Steel company announced that have won a construction project in Angola worth 30 billion RMB, the shares went up six times the initial value.

Amidst allegations of wrongdoing, The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) decided to investigate the company. 

http://www.cctv.com/program/bizchina/20070405/102823.shtml

There were also reports that a senior company executive may have leaked information about the contract to workers at an entertainment venue before the official announcement and the  boss of the venue traded in Hongxiao’s stocks.

The Chinese state owned television network launched its own investigation in to the case. They figured out the GDP of Angola and its foreign exchange reserve.
The contract is worth 4.3 billion USD, while Angola’s GDP in 2005 was about 30 billion USD.  So the contract is worth approximately 14% of Angola’s GDP.  Angola’s foreign exchange reserves is about 6.5 billion USD.  The contract worth about 2/3 of its foreign exchange reserves.

CCTV tried asking the official bodies responsible for development projects in Angola if they had any information on this project. The 16 agencies they contacted refused to confirm this project.  The company downplayed CCTV’s report saying that the Angolan authorities had not outright denied the existence of the project.  They are still insisting that they have the contract. 

http://www.shanghaidaily.com/sp/article/2007/200704/20070424/article_313861.htm

The latest  news is that the Chinese Stock regulators have stated that they plan to punish Hangxiao stell for inaccurate and incomplete information disclosure. Several people involved with the case have been asked to stay put in China.

http://www.cctv.com/program/bizchina/20070429/102189.shtml

We are not sure how this issue will play out but it wont be the last case where a company uses an African project to raise its profile. Would this issue affect legitimate companies trying to fund their overseas projects? Would the media take the role of doing homework for the investors in such cases in the future?

– by Preetam Rai

Technorati tags: , ,